Integrated assessment model diagnostics: key indicators and model evolution

نویسندگان

چکیده

Abstract Integrated assessment models (IAMs) form a prime tool in informing about climate mitigation strategies. Diagnostic indicators that allow comparison across these can help describe and explain differences model projections. This increases transparency comparability. Earlier, the IAM community has developed an approach to diagnose (Kriegler (2015 Technol. Forecast. Soc. Change 90 45–61)). Here we build on this, by proposing selected set of well-defined as standard, systematically routinely assess behaviour, similar metrics used for other modeling communities such models. These are relative abatement index, emission reduction type inertia timescale, fossil fuel reduction, transformation index cost per value. We apply 17 IAMs, assessing both older well their latest versions, applied IPCC 6th Assessment Report. The study shows be easily indentify key between versions. Moreover, demonstrate this helps link behavior characteristics assumptions. show together, six provide useful indication main traits roughly indicate general behavior. results also there is often considerable spread Interestingly, diagnostic values change different but does not seem distinct trend.

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ژورنال

عنوان ژورنال: Environmental Research Letters

سال: 2021

ISSN: ['1748-9326']

DOI: https://doi.org/10.1088/1748-9326/abf964